Data ReserveAI data licensing research
Section 11 / Market data and deal flow

How should we model net proceeds without inventing a valuation?

Data Reserve research deskSection 11Page 6 of 11Last updated 4 November 2026

Use a quoted or explicitly hypothetical gross receipt, then expose every deduction. The following is an illustrative arithmetic exercise only, with no asserted market price or probability.

Item Direct route Managed partner route
Assumed collected licence receipts $120,000 $150,000
Assumed partner percentage 0% 20%
Partner fee $0 $30,000
Assumed legal and preparation spending $35,000 $25,000
Assumed delivery and support spending $10,000 $10,000
Net contribution before internal overhead and tax $75,000 $85,000

The managed route wins by $10,000 under these assumptions only. If both routes collect $120,000, its contribution falls to $61,000. That sensitivity matters more than a claim that either route always maximises income.

Add separate lines for minimum guarantees, recoupment, credits, withholding, bad debt and contributor shares where applicable. Do not deduct the same preparation invoice twice if it is recouped through the partner statement. Model cash by month, since a signed licence may not fund preparation when the invoice is due.

For exclusivity, document the alternatives excluded, their evidence level and whether a narrower grant could preserve them. Do not manufacture an “opportunity cost” from speculative deals. Where no credible alternative exists, record the value as unknown and negotiate duration or release gates instead of false precision.

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